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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Farid Basharat won · S-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1576

Jean MatsumotovsFarid BasharatUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Farid Basharat won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJean Matsumoto: WrestlervsFarid Basharat: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Farid Basharat wins(65.2%)

Actual result: Farid Basharat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Farid Basharat at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Farid Basharat enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Farid Basharat has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Jean Matsumoto

Red Corner

Farid Basharat

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1518

Elo

1576

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jean MatsumotoW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dan Argueta · Apr 24

vs Brad Katona · Oct 24

vs Rob Font · Feb 25

vs Miles Johns · Aug 25

DECvs Bekzat Almakhan · Jun 26

latest

Farid BasharatW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kleydson Rodrigues · Sep 23

vs Taylor Lapilus · Jan 24

vs Victor Hugo · Oct 24

vs Chris Gutierrez · Oct 25

DECvs John Garza · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jean MatsumotoMetricFarid Basharat

5.37

Strikes / min

4.25

5.41

Strikes absorbed / min

2.89

47%

Strike defense

62%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

3.34

56%

Takedown defense

54%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.04Δ 1.40 — meaningful gap+1.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jean MatsumotoFarid Basharat

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jean Matsumoto(6 fights)Farid Basharat(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -58.3|Blue +58.3

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jean MatsumotoTargetFarid Basharat

By target zone

25% acc · 53%

Head

48% acc · 79%

69% acc · 26%

Body

88% acc · 18%

55% acc · 21%

Leg

75% acc · 4%

By position

31% acc · 82%

Distance

49% acc · 83%

61% acc · 18%

Clinch

88% acc · 18%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jean Matsumoto rounds

even

Farid Basharat rounds

Round 1Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:19

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns4

Control1:59

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Jean Matsumoto edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control1:22

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

76 / 220

Sig Strikes

80 / 152

34%

Sig Str %

53%

111 / 263

Total Strikes

95 / 172

7 / 11

TDs

2 / 7

60.7%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:40

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Farid Basharat	20 / 36	24 / 41	0 / 3
1	Jean Matsumoto	19 / 52	29 / 68	1 / 2
2	Farid Basharat	31 / 52	33 / 56	0 / 0
2	Jean Matsumoto	20 / 66	30 / 77	4 / 6
3	Farid Basharat	29 / 64	38 / 75	2 / 4
3	Jean Matsumoto	37 / 102	52 / 118	2 / 3

Jean Matsumoto

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights6

Farid Basharat

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9