Featherweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Brad Katona won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Jay CucciniellovsBrad KatonaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brad Katona won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jay Cucciniello wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Brad Katona wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jay Cucciniello at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Katona has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jay Cucciniello has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jay Cucciniello

Red Corner

Brad Katona

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

173 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jay CuccinielloNo prior UFC fights on record.

Brad KatonaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cody Gibson · Aug 23

vs Garrett Armfield · Jan 24

vs Jesse Butler · Jun 24

vs Jean Matsumoto · Oct 24

KOvs Bekzat Almakhan · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jay CuccinielloMetricBrad Katona

0.93

Strikes / min

4.81

4.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.75

36%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.86

71%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.80Δ 3.86 — meaningful gap+0.06

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jay Cucciniello(1 fights)Brad Katona(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jay CuccinielloTargetBrad Katona

By target zone

15% acc · 57%

Head

57% acc · 59%

63% acc · 36%

Body

62% acc · 11%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

88% acc · 30%

By position

22% acc · 93%

Distance

62% acc · 70%

33% acc · 7%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

70% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jay Cucciniello rounds

even

Brad Katona rounds

Round 1Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 3Brad Katona edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 64

Sig Strikes

71 / 111

20.3%

Sig Str %

63.3%

18 / 68

Total Strikes

117 / 167

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

8:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Katona	35 / 55	35 / 55	0 / 1
1	Jay Cucciniello	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 1
2	Brad Katona	20 / 29	36 / 46	1 / 2
2	Jay Cucciniello	3 / 21	4 / 22	0 / 0
3	Brad Katona	16 / 27	46 / 66	1 / 4
3	Jay Cucciniello	2 / 10	5 / 13	0 / 0

Jay Cucciniello

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach—

Fights1

Brad Katona

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights9