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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Javid Basharat won · U-DEC R3

Elo1503

Elo1487

Javid BasharatvsMateus MendoncaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Javid Basharat won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJavid Basharat: Elusive strikervsMateus Mendonca: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Javid Basharat wins(74.1%)

Actual result: Javid Basharat wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Javid Basharat at -390 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Javid Basharat has 33pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Javid Basharat has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Javid Basharat

Red Corner

Mateus Mendonca

Blue Corner

-390

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1503

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Javid Basharat

oldest →

vs Trevin Jones · Mar 22

vs Tony Gravely · Sep 22

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Mar 24

KOvs Ricky Simon · Feb 25

vs Gianni Vazquez · Feb 26

latest

Mateus MendoncaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Maness · Oct 23

vs Jesus Aguilar · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Javid BasharatMetricMateus Mendonca

5.18

Strikes / min

1.66

2.75

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

63%

Strike defense

30%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

2.54

83%

Takedown defense

55%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.43Δ 4.91 — meaningful gap-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Javid BasharatMateus Mendonca

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Javid Basharat(6 fights)Mateus Mendonca(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.5|Blue -16.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Javid BasharatTargetMateus Mendonca

By target zone

67% acc · 65%

Head

29% acc · 72%

89% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 10%

89% acc · 8%

Leg

50% acc · 17%

By position

67% acc · 63%

Distance

30% acc · 86%

71% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

96% acc · 26%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Javid Basharat rounds

even

Mateus Mendonca rounds

Round 1Javid Basharat edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:21

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Round 2Javid Basharat edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control2:28

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Javid Basharat edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control2:30

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

95 / 130

Sig Strikes

29 / 88

73.7%

Sig Str %

34.3%

125 / 164

Total Strikes

70 / 133

3 / 5

TDs

2 / 11

66.7%

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:19

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mateus Mendonca	12 / 43	14 / 45	1 / 5
1	Javid Basharat	32 / 51	35 / 54	1 / 2
2	Mateus Mendonca	7 / 24	20 / 39	1 / 3
2	Javid Basharat	35 / 45	53 / 64	1 / 1
3	Mateus Mendonca	10 / 21	36 / 49	0 / 3
3	Javid Basharat	28 / 34	37 / 46	1 / 2

Javid Basharat

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6

Mateus Mendonca

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3