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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Robert Peralta won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1354

Jason YoungvsRobert PeraltaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · Saturday, September 29, 2012Nottingham, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Robert Peralta won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:23

Style matchupJason Young: Well-roundedvsRobert Peralta: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Robert Peralta wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Robert Peralta wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Robert Peralta at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jason Young
Red Corner
VS
Robert Peralta
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
1490
Elo
1354
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Young
oldest →
L
vs Dustin Poirier · Jun 11
L
vs Michihiro Omigawa · Nov 11
W
vs Eric Wisely · Apr 12
latest
Robert PeraltaL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Akira Corassani · Apr 13
W
KOvs Estevan Payan · Dec 13
W
vs Rony Jason · May 14
L
SUBvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 14
L
vs Clay Guida · Apr 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason YoungMetricRobert Peralta
2.97
Strikes / min
3.76
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
2.97
50%
Strike defense
53%
1.98
TDs / 15 min
0.59
55%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.23Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1515Strikes44.3 vs 59.5Takedowns2.0 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs 1.0
Jason YoungRobert Peralta

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jason Young(4 fights)Robert Peralta(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +135.7|Blue -135.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +2.2|Blue -2.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -210.0|Blue +210.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason YoungTargetRobert Peralta

By target zone

1
100% acc · 50%
Head
6
38% acc · 86%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 14%
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
0

By position

2
100% acc · 100%
Distance
2
17% acc · 29%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
100% acc · 71%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jason Young rounds
0
even
1
Robert Peralta rounds
Round 1Robert Peralta edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 2
Sig Strikes
7 / 17
100%
Sig Str %
41%
2 / 2
Total Strikes
7 / 17
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:03

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robert Peralta7 / 177 / 170 / 00
1Jason Young2 / 22 / 20 / 00

Jason Young

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Robert Peralta

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights7