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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Phil Rowe won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1432

Elo1484

Jason WittvsPhil RoweUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Saturday, February 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Phil Rowe won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:15

Style matchupJason Witt: WrestlervsPhil Rowe: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Phil Rowe wins(59.1%)

Actual result: Phil Rowe wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Phil Rowe is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jason Witt has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Jason Witt has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Phil Rowe has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Witt

Red Corner

Phil Rowe

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1432

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Witt

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20

SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Aug 22

latest

Phil RoweL2 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Jun 23

vs Jake Matthews · Jun 24

KOvs Ange Loosa · Jun 25

vs Seokhyeon Ko · Nov 25

vs Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason WittMetricPhil Rowe

2.15

Strikes / min

3.51

2.54

Strikes absorbed / min

4.15

52%

Strike defense

50%

6.90

TDs / 15 min

0.46

100%

Takedown defense

53%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason WittPhil Rowe

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Witt(6 fights)Phil Rowe(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.5|Blue +51.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason WittTargetPhil Rowe

By target zone

33% acc · 63%

Head

50% acc · 100%

33% acc · 25%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

35% acc · 88%

Distance

36% acc · 63%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Witt rounds

even

Phil Rowe rounds

Round 1Jason Witt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control3:46

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control1:25

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 22

Sig Strikes

8 / 17

36%

Sig Str %

44%

25 / 43

Total Strikes

8 / 17

4 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

58%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:11

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Phil Rowe	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
1	Jason Witt	3 / 11	19 / 31	2 / 3
2	Phil Rowe	6 / 10	6 / 10	0 / 0
2	Jason Witt	5 / 11	6 / 12	2 / 4

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Phil Rowe

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights8