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Catch Weight

3 Rounds

Josh Quinlan won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1432

Elo1486

Jason WittvsJosh QuinlanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Josh Quinlan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:09

Style matchupJason Witt: WrestlervsJosh Quinlan: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Josh Quinlan wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Josh Quinlan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Quinlan at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Quinlan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Quinlan is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jason Witt has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Jason Witt has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Witt

Red Corner

Josh Quinlan

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1432

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'0"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Witt

oldest →

KOvs Takashi Sato · Jun 20

SUBvs Cole Williams · Oct 20

KOvs Matthew Semelsberger · Mar 21

vs Bryan Barberena · Jul 21

KOvs Phil Rowe · Feb 22

latest

Josh QuinlanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Trey Waters · Apr 23

KOvs Danny Barlow · Feb 24

vs Adam Fugitt · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason WittMetricJosh Quinlan

2.15

Strikes / min

3.57

2.54

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

52%

Strike defense

53%

6.90

TDs / 15 min

0.34

100%

Takedown defense

71%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 2.42 — meaningful gap-2.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason WittJosh Quinlan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Witt(6 fights)Josh Quinlan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.5|Blue +53.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason WittTargetJosh Quinlan

By target zone

0% acc

Head

25% acc · 67%

100% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

25% acc · 33%

By position

8% acc · 100%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Witt rounds

even

Josh Quinlan rounds

Round 1Josh Quinlan edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:27

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 12

Sig Strikes

3 / 12

Sig Str %

25%

2 / 13

Total Strikes

3 / 12

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Quinlan	3 / 12	3 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Jason Witt	1 / 12	2 / 13	1 / 2	0

Jason Witt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Josh Quinlan

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4