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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Rustam Khabilov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1492

Jason SaggovsRustam KhabilovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Rustam Khabilov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJason Saggo: WrestlervsRustam Khabilov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jason Saggo wins(55.3%)

Actual result: Rustam Khabilov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Saggo at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rustam Khabilov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rustam Khabilov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo

Red Corner

Rustam Khabilov

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1362

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Saggo

oldest →

KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14

vs Paul Felder · Oct 14

KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Sep 17

latest

Rustam Khabilov

oldest →

vs Leandro Silva · Sep 16

vs Desmond Green · Sep 17

vs Kajan Johnson · Sep 18

vs Diego Ferreira · Feb 19

vs Sergey Khandozhko · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricRustam Khabilov

2.50

Strikes / min

1.98

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

2.16

52%

Strike defense

65%

2.33

TDs / 15 min

3.95

23%

Takedown defense

61%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason SaggoRustam Khabilov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Saggo(6 fights)Rustam Khabilov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -130.2|Blue +130.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetRustam Khabilov

By target zone

2% acc · 5%

Head

38% acc · 79%

50% acc · 37%

Body

86% acc · 14%

69% acc · 58%

Leg

33% acc · 7%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 69%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

62% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Saggo rounds

even

Rustam Khabilov rounds

Round 1Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:05Control

Round 2Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Rustam Khabilov edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 72

Sig Strikes

42 / 102

27%

Sig Str %

39.3%

43 / 100

Total Strikes

93 / 156

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 5

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rustam Khabilov	8 / 23	22 / 39	1 / 1
1	Jason Saggo	7 / 22	12 / 28	0 / 0
2	Rustam Khabilov	20 / 43	31 / 54	1 / 1
2	Jason Saggo	6 / 31	10 / 35	0 / 1
3	Rustam Khabilov	14 / 36	40 / 63	2 / 3
3	Jason Saggo	6 / 19	21 / 37	0 / 1

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Rustam Khabilov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13