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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · S-DEC R3

Elo1362

Elo1392

Jason SaggovsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · Saturday, October 4, 2014Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJason Saggo: WrestlervsPaul Felder: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Jason Saggo wins(72.8%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Saggo at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Felder has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1362

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason SaggoL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14

KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Sep 17

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricPaul Felder

2.50

Strikes / min

3.70

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

52%

Strike defense

48%

2.33

TDs / 15 min

0.29

23%

Takedown defense

64%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason SaggoPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Saggo(6 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -29.9|Blue +29.9

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

55% acc · 72%

Head

57% acc · 86%

60% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 8%

71% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

48% acc · 48%

Distance

46% acc · 24%

80% acc · 14%

Clinch

71% acc · 29%

69% acc · 38%

Ground

65% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Saggo rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Jason Saggo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control3:53

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:51

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:31Control

Round 3Jason Saggo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns3

Control2:33

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:10Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 50

Sig Strikes

51 / 84

57.3%

Sig Str %

60%

45 / 77

Total Strikes

72 / 109

6 / 16

TDs

1 / 1

38.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:17

Ctrl Time

3:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	17 / 25	22 / 32	0 / 0
1	Jason Saggo	8 / 14	8 / 16	2 / 5
2	Paul Felder	23 / 38	29 / 45	0 / 0
2	Jason Saggo	11 / 19	16 / 28	1 / 6
3	Paul Felder	11 / 21	21 / 32	1 / 1
3	Jason Saggo	10 / 17	21 / 33	3 / 5

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15