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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jason Saggo won · S-DEC R3
Elo1362
Jason Saggo
Elo1358

Jason SaggovsLeandro SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · Saturday, June 18, 2016Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jason Saggo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Leandro Silva wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Jason Saggo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Leandro Silva at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Leandro Silva has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Leandro Silva has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo
Red Corner
VS
Leandro Silva
Blue Corner
-115
(53%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1362
Elo
1358
40
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason SaggoL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14
L
vs Paul Felder · Oct 14
W
KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Sep 17
latest
Leandro Silva
oldest →
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 14
W
SUBvs Charlie Brenneman · Nov 14
W
vs Lewis Gonzalez · Jun 15
W
vs Efrain Escudero · Nov 15
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricLeandro Silva
2.50
Strikes / min
2.39
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
2.08
52%
Strike defense
63%
2.33
TDs / 15 min
1.76
23%
Takedown defense
65%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1521Strikes19.7 vs 28.0Takedowns2.7 vs 1.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.50Form0.7 vs 0.7
Jason SaggoLeandro Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jason Saggo(6 fights)Leandro Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +3.9|Blue -3.9
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetLeandro Silva

By target zone

29
31% acc · 60%
Head
31
40% acc · 66%
6
35% acc · 13%
Body
6
60% acc · 13%
13
62% acc · 27%
Leg
10
83% acc · 21%

By position

37
31% acc · 77%
Distance
40
46% acc · 85%
0
0% acc
Clinch
2
67% acc · 4%
11
92% acc · 23%
Ground
5
56% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jason Saggo rounds
0
even
2
Leandro Silva rounds
Round 1Jason Saggo edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:40
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Leandro Silva edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:19
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:42Control
Round 3Leandro Silva edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:21
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:30Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
48 / 132
Sig Strikes
47 / 99
37.7%
Sig Str %
43.7%
75 / 160
Total Strikes
61 / 115
1 / 2
TDs
2 / 3
50%
TD %
75%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:20
Ctrl Time
1:12

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Leandro Silva4 / 125 / 130 / 00
1Jason Saggo11 / 2526 / 411 / 10
2Leandro Silva18 / 3721 / 401 / 20
2Jason Saggo13 / 3717 / 410 / 00
3Leandro Silva25 / 5035 / 621 / 10
3Jason Saggo24 / 7032 / 780 / 10

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Leandro Silva

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights7