Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Lightweight
3 Rounds
Jason Saggo won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1362
Jason Saggo
Elo1354

Jason SaggovsJosh ShockleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Jason Saggo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:57

Model Prediction: Josh Shockley wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Jason Saggo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Shockley at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason Saggo is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Josh Shockley has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Josh Shockley has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo
Red Corner
VS
Josh Shockley
Blue Corner
-105
(51%)
Vegas Odds
-105
(51%)
1362
Elo
1354
40
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason SaggoL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Paul Felder · Oct 14
W
KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16
W
vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16
L
vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16
L
KOvs Gilbert Burns · Sep 17
latest
Josh Shockley
oldest →
L
vs Ivan Jorge · Feb 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricJosh Shockley
2.50
Strikes / min
1.40
2.94
Strikes absorbed / min
1.75
52%
Strike defense
60%
2.33
TDs / 15 min
0.00
23%
Takedown defense
61%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.35
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jason Saggo(6 fights)Josh Shockley(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +7.5|Blue -7.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetJosh Shockley

By target zone

9
41% acc · 90%
Head
2
33% acc · 33%
0
Body
3
60% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 10%
Leg
1
100% acc · 17%

By position

1
20% acc · 10%
Distance
3
43% acc · 50%
0
Clinch
1
50% acc · 17%
9
47% acc · 90%
Ground
2
67% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Jason Saggo rounds
0
even
0
Josh Shockley rounds
Round 1Jason Saggo edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control3:40
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:33Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
10 / 24
Sig Strikes
6 / 12
41%
Sig Str %
50%
29 / 45
Total Strikes
13 / 20
2 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
66%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
3:40
Ctrl Time
0:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josh Shockley6 / 1213 / 200 / 01
1Jason Saggo10 / 2429 / 452 / 30

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Josh Shockley

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2