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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gilbert Burns won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1362

Elo1466

Jason SaggovsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · Saturday, September 16, 2017Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:55

Style matchupJason Saggo: WrestlervsGilbert Burns: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(54.7%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jason Saggo is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Gilbert Burns has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Saggo

Red Corner

Gilbert Burns

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1362

Elo

1466

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Saggo

oldest →

KOvs Josh Shockley · Jun 14

vs Paul Felder · Oct 14

KOvs Justin Salas · Mar 16

vs Leandro Silva · Jun 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · Dec 16

latest

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason SaggoMetricGilbert Burns

2.50

Strikes / min

3.16

2.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.68

52%

Strike defense

52%

2.33

TDs / 15 min

2.04

23%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason SaggoGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Saggo(6 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.9|Blue +103.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason SaggoTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

18% acc · 31%

Head

35% acc · 64%

64% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 19%

83% acc · 43%

Leg

88% acc · 17%

By position

36% acc · 86%

Distance

40% acc · 74%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

60% acc · 14%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

71% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Saggo rounds

even

Gilbert Burns rounds

Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:39

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:24

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 92

Sig Strikes

42 / 95

37.5%

Sig Str %

43.5%

39 / 99

Total Strikes

50 / 104

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 3

50%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

1:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gilbert Burns	21 / 48	24 / 51	1 / 2
1	Jason Saggo	15 / 44	18 / 50	0 / 0
2	Gilbert Burns	21 / 47	26 / 53	1 / 1
2	Jason Saggo	20 / 48	21 / 49	1 / 2

Jason Saggo

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24