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Middleweight

3 Rounds

CB Dollaway won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1491

Jason MillervsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

CB Dollaway won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJason Miller: Submission grapplervsCB Dollaway: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jason Miller wins(53.3%)

Actual result: CB Dollaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Miller at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

CB Dollaway has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
CB Dollaway has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Miller

Red Corner

CB Dollaway

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1351

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'2"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason Miller

oldest →

KOvs Michael Bisping · Dec 11

latest

CB Dollaway

oldest →

vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15

KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15

vs Ed Herman · Jul 17

vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18

KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason MillerMetricCB Dollaway

1.83

Strikes / min

2.65

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

2.58

49%

Strike defense

54%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

3.55

43%

Takedown defense

62%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.47evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason MillerCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Miller(2 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.8|Blue +139.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -111.0|Blue +111.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason MillerTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

35% acc · 79%

Head

51% acc · 86%

100% acc · 21%

Body

100% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

38% acc · 86%

Distance

38% acc · 34%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

64% acc · 48%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Miller rounds

even

CB Dollaway rounds

Round 1CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:56Control

Round 2CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:04

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:48Control

Round 3CB Dollaway edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 34

Sig Strikes

29 / 53

40.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

29 / 59

Total Strikes

99 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 7

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

12:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	CB Dollaway	13 / 23	26 / 42	1 / 1	1
1	Jason Miller	7 / 15	15 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	CB Dollaway	7 / 17	16 / 32	1 / 4	0
2	Jason Miller	5 / 14	10 / 25	0 / 0	1
3	CB Dollaway	9 / 13	57 / 75	2 / 2	0
3	Jason Miller	2 / 5	4 / 10	0 / 0	0

Jason Miller

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach—

Fights2

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights14