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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Tom Lawlor won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1351

Elo1490

Jason MacDonaldvsTom LawlorUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · Tuesday, May 15, 2012Fairfax, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Tom Lawlor won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:50

Style matchupJason MacDonald: Submission grapplervsTom Lawlor: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tom Lawlor wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Tom Lawlor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Lawlor at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tom Lawlor is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Jason MacDonald threatens submissions; Tom Lawlor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Tom Lawlor has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tom Lawlor has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
Jason MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason MacDonald

Red Corner

Tom Lawlor

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason MacDonald

oldest →

KOvs John Salter · May 10

SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11

KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11

latest

Tom Lawlor

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Weidman · Nov 11

vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12

SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13

KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15

vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason MacDonaldMetricTom Lawlor

1.55

Strikes / min

2.50

2.70

Strikes absorbed / min

2.41

46%

Strike defense

60%

1.43

TDs / 15 min

2.46

35%

Takedown defense

57%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.15Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason MacDonaldTom Lawlor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason MacDonald(4 fights)Tom Lawlor(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -139.0|Blue +139.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason MacDonaldTargetTom Lawlor

By target zone

13% acc · 100%

Head

45% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

14% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason MacDonald rounds

even

Tom Lawlor rounds

Round 1Tom Lawlor edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 8

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

12%

Sig Str %

45%

1 / 8

Total Strikes

5 / 11

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Lawlor	5 / 11	5 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Jason MacDonald	1 / 8	1 / 8	0 / 1	0

Jason MacDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4

Tom Lawlor

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8