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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Jason MacDonald won · SUB R1
Elo1351
Jason MacDonald
Elo1351

Jason MacDonaldvsRyan JensenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · Saturday, April 30, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Jason MacDonald won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:37

Style matchupJason MacDonald: Submission grapplervsRyan Jensen: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Ryan Jensen wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Jason MacDonald wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Jensen at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason MacDonald enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jason MacDonald threatens submissions; Ryan Jensen has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Ryan Jensen has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jason MacDonald has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Jensen
Blue Corner
+115
(47%)
Vegas Odds
-125
(56%)
1351
Elo
1351
51
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason MacDonaldL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs John Salter · May 10
L
KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11
L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12
latest
Ryan Jensen
oldest →
W
SUBvs Jesse Forbes · May 10
L
SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason MacDonaldMetricRyan Jensen
1.55
Strikes / min
2.84
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
2.99
46%
Strike defense
59%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
1.55
35%
Takedown defense
31%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1482 vs 1500Strikes11.6 vs 14.3Takedowns0.7 vs 0.6Sub Atts0.91 vs 0.57Form-1.0 vs -0.2
Jason MacDonaldRyan Jensen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jason MacDonald(4 fights)Ryan Jensen(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +168.0|Blue -168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason MacDonaldTargetRyan Jensen

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jason MacDonald rounds
1
even
0
Ryan Jensen rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:39
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:45Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 1
Sig Strikes
0 / 5
0%
Sig Str %
0%
0 / 1
Total Strikes
6 / 12
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
1
0:39
Ctrl Time
0:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan Jensen0 / 56 / 120 / 01
1Jason MacDonald0 / 10 / 10 / 11

Jason MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4

Ryan Jensen

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3