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Middleweight
3 Rounds
John Salter won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1351
Jason MacDonald
Elo1490

Jason MacDonaldvsJohn SalterUFC Prediction Result

UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · Saturday, May 8, 2010Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

John Salter won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:42

Style matchupJason MacDonald: Submission grapplervsJohn Salter: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Jason MacDonald wins(76.1%)

Actual result: John Salter wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason MacDonald at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Salter is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jason MacDonald has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • John Salter has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • John Salter has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Salter (53.5%).
  • Jason MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason MacDonald
Red Corner
VS
John Salter
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1351
Elo
1490
51
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'1"
203.2 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Ryan Jensen · Apr 11
L
KOvs Alan Belcher · Sep 11
L
KOvs Tom Lawlor · May 12
latest
John Salter
oldest →
L
SUBvs Dan Miller · Aug 10
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason MacDonaldMetricJohn Salter
1.55
Strikes / min
1.68
2.70
Strikes absorbed / min
1.68
46%
Strike defense
68%
1.43
TDs / 15 min
2.85
35%
Takedown defense
66%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.15Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap0.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes12.2 vs 7.0Takedowns0.8 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Jason MacDonaldJohn Salter

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Jason MacDonald(4 fights)John Salter(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.6|Blue +138.6
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason MacDonaldTargetJohn Salter

By target zone

1
33% acc · 20%
Head
2
50% acc · 67%
2
100% acc · 40%
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 40%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

2
50% acc · 40%
Distance
1
25% acc · 33%
3
100% acc · 60%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 67%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jason MacDonald rounds
0
even
1
John Salter rounds
Round 1John Salter edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:11Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 7
Sig Strikes
3 / 7
71%
Sig Str %
42%
10 / 12
Total Strikes
5 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 3
—
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Salter3 / 75 / 91 / 30
1Jason MacDonald5 / 710 / 120 / 00

Jason MacDonald

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4

John Salter

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights2