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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jordan Rinaldi won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1491

Jason KnightvsJordan RinaldiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jordan Rinaldi won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJason Knight: Submission grapplervsJordan Rinaldi: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Jason Knight wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Jordan Rinaldi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Knight at -300 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jason Knight has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Knight

Red Corner

Jordan Rinaldi

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1369

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason KnightL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jan 17

KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Gabriel Benitez · Dec 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

latest

Jordan RinaldiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Abel Trujillo · May 16

SUBvs Alvaro Herrera · Aug 17

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 18

vs Arnold Allen · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason KnightMetricJordan Rinaldi

2.95

Strikes / min

1.56

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

2.32

51%

Strike defense

59%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

1.45

47%

Takedown defense

20%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking-0.76

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason KnightJordan Rinaldi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Knight(9 fights)Jordan Rinaldi(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -122.9|Blue +122.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -120.0|Blue +120.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason KnightTargetJordan Rinaldi

By target zone

15% acc · 42%

Head

41% acc · 60%

67% acc · 33%

Body

40% acc · 10%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

22% acc · 67%

Distance

50% acc · 45%

60% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Knight rounds

even

Jordan Rinaldi rounds

Round 1Jordan Rinaldi edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:59Control

Round 2Jordan Rinaldi edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:02Control

Round 3Jordan Rinaldi edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:12

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 42

Sig Strikes

20 / 40

20.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

62 / 93

Total Strikes

98 / 128

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:12

Ctrl Time

11:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jordan Rinaldi	14 / 28	29 / 44	2 / 2	0
1	Jason Knight	10 / 26	24 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Jordan Rinaldi	6 / 8	26 / 33	1 / 1	1
2	Jason Knight	1 / 8	15 / 22	0 / 0	0
3	Jordan Rinaldi	0 / 4	43 / 51	0 / 1	1
3	Jason Knight	1 / 8	23 / 31	0 / 0	0

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Jordan Rinaldi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5