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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Benitez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1369

Elo1493

Jason KnightvsGabriel BenitezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Benitez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJason Knight: Submission grapplervsGabriel Benitez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jason Knight wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Gabriel Benitez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Knight at -330 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Knight enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gabriel Benitez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Gabriel Benitez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jason Knight

Red Corner

Gabriel Benitez

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1369

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason KnightL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Jan 17

KOvs Chas Skelly · May 17

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Jul 17

vs Makwan Amirkhani · May 18

vs Jordan Rinaldi · Nov 18

latest

Gabriel BenitezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Jul 21

KOvs David Onama · Feb 22

KOvs Charlie Ontiveros · Aug 22

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 24

vs Maheshate · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason KnightMetricGabriel Benitez

2.95

Strikes / min

5.26

3.02

Strikes absorbed / min

4.49

51%

Strike defense

63%

1.31

TDs / 15 min

0.22

47%

Takedown defense

55%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason KnightGabriel Benitez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Knight(9 fights)Gabriel Benitez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.5|Blue +124.5

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason KnightTargetGabriel Benitez

By target zone

14% acc · 61%

Head

37% acc · 72%

67% acc · 28%

Body

78% acc · 16%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

91% acc · 12%

By position

19% acc · 92%

Distance

44% acc · 95%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

Ground

57% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Knight rounds

even

Gabriel Benitez rounds

Round 1Gabriel Benitez edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:38

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Gabriel Benitez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:22

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 3Gabriel Benitez edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 181

Sig Strikes

85 / 192

19.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

37 / 182

Total Strikes

91 / 199

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

16.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gabriel Benitez	20 / 55	22 / 57	0 / 0
1	Jason Knight	12 / 62	12 / 62	0 / 5
2	Gabriel Benitez	24 / 59	27 / 62	0 / 0
2	Jason Knight	9 / 47	10 / 48	1 / 2
3	Gabriel Benitez	41 / 78	42 / 80	0 / 0
3	Jason Knight	15 / 72	15 / 72	0 / 2

Jason Knight

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9

Gabriel Benitez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15