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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jason High won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Jason HighvsAnthony LapsleyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · Saturday, November 16, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jason High won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jason High wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Jason High wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason High at -320 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anthony Lapsley has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jason High has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jason High

Red Corner

Anthony Lapsley

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason High

oldest →

vs Charlie Brenneman · Mar 10

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 13

SUBvs James Head · Aug 13

KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 14

latest

Anthony Lapsley

oldest →

KOvs Albert Tumenov · May 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason HighMetricAnthony Lapsley

1.28

Strikes / min

0.53

1.56

Strikes absorbed / min

0.58

48%

Strike defense

66%

2.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

37%

Takedown defense

20%

2.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.28evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason HighAnthony Lapsley

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason High(5 fights)Anthony Lapsley(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.1|Blue -137.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason HighTargetAnthony Lapsley

By target zone

30% acc · 60%

Head

35% acc · 75%

100% acc · 40%

Body

100% acc · 13%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

50% acc · 60%

Distance

21% acc · 38%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

25% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason High rounds

even

Anthony Lapsley rounds

Round 1Jason High edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns3

Control4:38

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Anthony Lapsley edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control1:13

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:19Control

Round 3Jason High edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:41

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 12

Sig Strikes

8 / 19

30%

Sig Str %

35.7%

41 / 54

Total Strikes

72 / 85

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

66.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:32

Ctrl Time

5:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Lapsley	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Jason High	2 / 5	19 / 23	3 / 3	2
2	Anthony Lapsley	4 / 8	39 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Jason High	0 / 1	3 / 5	0 / 1	1
3	Anthony Lapsley	4 / 7	33 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Jason High	3 / 6	19 / 26	1 / 1	1

Jason High

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights5

Anthony Lapsley

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2