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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jason Gonzalez won · SUB R1

Elo1372

Elo1359

Jason GonzalezvsJC CottrellUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jason Gonzalez won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:54

Model Prediction: JC Cottrell wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Jason Gonzalez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

JC Cottrell at -125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jason Gonzalez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jason Gonzalez threatens submissions; JC Cottrell has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Jason Gonzalez has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
JC Cottrell has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jason Gonzalez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jason Gonzalez

Red Corner

JC Cottrell

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1372

Elo

1359

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason GonzalezL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Drew Dober · Sep 16

SUBvs Gregor Gillespie · Sep 17

SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19

latest

JC Cottrell

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason GonzalezMetricJC Cottrell

3.06

Strikes / min

0.79

3.13

Strikes absorbed / min

2.75

58%

Strike defense

45%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.79

30%

Takedown defense

50%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap-1.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason GonzalezJC Cottrell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)JC Cottrell(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.2|Blue -13.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason GonzalezTargetJC Cottrell

By target zone

20% acc · 75%

Head

17% acc · 100%

33% acc · 25%

Body

Leg

By position

24% acc · 100%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Gonzalez rounds

even

JC Cottrell rounds

Round 1JC Cottrell edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:07

1Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:38Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 18

Sig Strikes

1 / 6

22%

Sig Str %

16%

4 / 18

Total Strikes

8 / 15

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	JC Cottrell	1 / 6	8 / 15	1 / 1	0
1	Jason Gonzalez	4 / 18	4 / 18	0 / 0	1

Jason Gonzalez

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights4

JC Cottrell

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2