Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Rogerio Nogueira won · S-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1387

Jason BrilzvsRogerio NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · Saturday, May 29, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rogerio Nogueira won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jason Brilz wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Rogerio Nogueira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Brilz at +435 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rogerio Nogueira is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Jason Brilz has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Rogerio Nogueira has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Rogerio Nogueira (53.5%).
Rogerio Nogueira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jason Brilz

Red Corner

Rogerio Nogueira

Blue Corner

+435

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1351

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jason BrilzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Eric Schafer · Mar 10

KOvs Vladimir Matyushenko · Apr 11

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 11

latest

Rogerio NogueiraL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16

KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16

KOvs Sam Alvey · Sep 18

KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19

vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jason BrilzMetricRogerio Nogueira

2.66

Strikes / min

2.43

1.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.34

65%

Strike defense

59%

2.37

TDs / 15 min

0.64

25%

Takedown defense

62%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.88evenly matched on net striking+0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jason BrilzRogerio Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jason Brilz(4 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.6|Blue +35.6

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.9|Blue +47.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jason BrilzTargetRogerio Nogueira

By target zone

38% acc · 89%

Head

27% acc · 70%

67% acc · 11%

Body

80% acc · 17%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

23% acc · 39%

Distance

31% acc · 78%

38% acc · 28%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

86% acc · 33%

Ground

57% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jason Brilz rounds

even

Rogerio Nogueira rounds

Round 1Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:49

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 2Jason Brilz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control1:59

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Rogerio Nogueira edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:07

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 50

Sig Strikes

23 / 67

25.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

41 / 80

Total Strikes

42 / 90

3 / 13

TDs

1 / 1

24.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:55

Ctrl Time

2:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Rogerio Nogueira	10 / 27	15 / 34	1 / 1	0
1	Jason Brilz	4 / 14	14 / 28	1 / 3	0
2	Rogerio Nogueira	4 / 21	4 / 21	0 / 0	1
2	Jason Brilz	14 / 29	22 / 38	1 / 4	3
3	Rogerio Nogueira	9 / 19	23 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Jason Brilz	0 / 7	5 / 14	1 / 6	0

Jason Brilz

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4

Rogerio Nogueira

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights12