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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jarno Errens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1510

Jarno ErrensvsSteven NguyenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Saturday, March 23, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jarno Errens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Steven Nguyen wins(63.9%)

Actual result: Jarno Errens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Steven Nguyen at -162 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jarno Errens enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Steven Nguyen has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Steven Nguyen (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jarno Errens

Red Corner

Steven Nguyen

Blue Corner

+136

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-162

(62%)

1493

Elo

1510

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jarno ErrensL3 streak

oldest →

vs William Gomis · Sep 22

vs SeungWoo Choi · Aug 23

SUBvs Youssef Zalal · Aug 24

latest

Steven Nguyen

oldest →

KOvs Mohammad Yahya · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jarno ErrensMetricSteven Nguyen

3.29

Strikes / min

7.47

3.29

Strikes absorbed / min

7.10

61%

Strike defense

60%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.24

33%

Takedown defense

88%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jarno ErrensSteven Nguyen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jarno Errens(4 fights)Steven Nguyen(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -16.7|Blue +16.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jarno ErrensTargetSteven Nguyen

By target zone

37% acc · 49%

Head

25% acc · 75%

76% acc · 28%

Body

50% acc · 13%

83% acc · 24%

Leg

35% acc · 13%

By position

103

51% acc · 98%

Distance

27% acc · 94%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

50% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jarno Errens rounds

even

Steven Nguyen rounds

Round 1Jarno Errens edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Jarno Errens edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Jarno Errens edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:12

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 207

Sig Strikes

63 / 226

50%

Sig Str %

28%

106 / 208

Total Strikes

63 / 227

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Steven Nguyen	21 / 63	21 / 63	1 / 1
1	Jarno Errens	39 / 71	40 / 72	0 / 0
2	Steven Nguyen	22 / 91	22 / 91	0 / 0
2	Jarno Errens	33 / 72	33 / 72	0 / 0
3	Steven Nguyen	20 / 72	20 / 73	0 / 0
3	Jarno Errens	33 / 64	33 / 64	0 / 1

Jarno Errens

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Steven Nguyen

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2