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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Chase Sherman won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1436

Elo1459

Jared VanderaavsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Chase Sherman won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:10

Style matchupJared Vanderaa: Pressure fightervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Chase Sherman wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Chase Sherman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chase Sherman at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Vanderaa enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Chase Sherman enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Jared Vanderaa has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Chase Sherman has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Vanderaa

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1436

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared VanderaaL4 streak

oldest →

vs Justin Tafa · May 21

KOvs Alexandr Romanov · Oct 21

vs Andrei Arlovski · Feb 22

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Oct 22

latest

Chase ShermanL5 streak

oldest →

vs Parker Porter · Aug 21

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared VanderaaMetricChase Sherman

4.96

Strikes / min

6.04

5.67

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

45%

Strike defense

52%

0.18

TDs / 15 min

0.09

20%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.71evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared VanderaaChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Vanderaa(7 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.6|Blue +22.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared VanderaaTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

34% acc · 70%

Head

49% acc · 63%

72% acc · 17%

Body

82% acc · 23%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

90% acc · 14%

By position

108

41% acc · 99%

Distance

134

58% acc · 98%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Vanderaa rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Vanderaa edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 266

Sig Strikes

137 / 235

41.3%

Sig Str %

58%

109 / 267

Total Strikes

137 / 235

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	46 / 70	46 / 70	0 / 0
1	Jared Vanderaa	29 / 92	29 / 92	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	40 / 81	40 / 81	0 / 0
2	Jared Vanderaa	44 / 102	44 / 103	0 / 0
3	Chase Sherman	51 / 84	51 / 84	0 / 0
3	Jared Vanderaa	36 / 72	36 / 72	0 / 0

Jared Vanderaa

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights7

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15