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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jared Rosholt won · Decision R3
Elo1490
Jared Rosholt
Elo1491

Jared RosholtvsTim JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Jared Rosholt won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(64.6%)

Actual result: Jared Rosholt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Tim Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Rosholt
Red Corner
VS
Tim Johnson
Blue Corner
-245
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1490
Elo
1491
39
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'3"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Rosholt
oldest →
W
vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14
L
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14
W
KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15
W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15
L
vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16
latest
Tim Johnson
oldest →
W
DECvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 16
L
DECvs Alexander Volkov · Nov 16
W
DECvs Daniel Omielanczuk · Mar 17
L
KOvs Junior Albini · Jul 17
W
DECvs Marcelo Golm · Feb 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared RosholtMetricTim Johnson
2.08
Strikes / min
—
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
—
59%
Strike defense
—
1.83
TDs / 15 min
—
66%
Takedown defense
—
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1538 vs 1514Strikes30.2 vs 22.0Takedowns1.4 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.5 vs 1.0
Jared RosholtTim Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jared Rosholt(8 fights)Tim Johnson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Tim Johnson

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4