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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jared Rosholt won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1490
Jared Rosholt
Elo1354

Jared RosholtvsJosh CopelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jared Rosholt won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:12

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Jared Rosholt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jared Rosholt
Red Corner
VS
Josh Copeland
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1490
Elo
1354
39
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Rosholt
oldest →
W
vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14
L
KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14
W
DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15
W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15
L
vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16
latest
Josh Copeland
oldest →
L
vs Ruslan Magomedov · Nov 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared RosholtMetricJosh Copeland
2.08
Strikes / min
1.03
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
59%
Strike defense
55%
1.83
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
57%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 2.54 — meaningful gap-1.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1526 vs 1487Strikes32.3 vs 20.0Takedowns1.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.2 vs -1.0
Jared RosholtJosh Copeland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Jared Rosholt(8 fights)Josh Copeland(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.1|Blue -136.1
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared RosholtTargetJosh Copeland

By target zone

19
46% acc · 86%
Head
7
21% acc · 78%
3
75% acc · 14%
Body
2
100% acc · 22%
0
Leg
0

By position

9
38% acc · 41%
Distance
6
21% acc · 67%
3
75% acc · 14%
Clinch
3
38% acc · 33%
10
59% acc · 45%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Jared Rosholt rounds
0
even
0
Josh Copeland rounds
Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:27
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control1:35
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jared Rosholt edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:19
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 45
Sig Strikes
9 / 36
48.7%
Sig Str %
25%
51 / 79
Total Strikes
19 / 46
2 / 6
TDs
0 / 0
41.7%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
5:21
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Josh Copeland5 / 1511 / 210 / 00
1Jared Rosholt5 / 1110 / 160 / 10
2Josh Copeland3 / 173 / 170 / 00
2Jared Rosholt11 / 2322 / 371 / 40
3Josh Copeland1 / 45 / 80 / 00
3Jared Rosholt6 / 1119 / 261 / 10

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Josh Copeland

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2