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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Aleksei Oleinik won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Jared Rosholt
Elo1495
Aleksei Oleinik

Jared RosholtvsAleksei OleinikUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Aleksei Oleinik won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:21

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Aleksei Oleinik wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at -420 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jared Rosholt has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jared Rosholt has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Aleksei Oleinik has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Rosholt
Red Corner
VS
Aleksei Oleinik
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
1490
Elo
1495
39
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'2"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Rosholt
oldest →
W
vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14
W
KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15
W
DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15
W
vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15
L
vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16
latest
Aleksei Oleinik
oldest →
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Aug 20
L
KOvs Chris Daukaus · Feb 21
L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jun 21
W
SUBvs Jared Vanderaa · Apr 22
L
vs Ilir Latifi · Oct 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared RosholtMetricAleksei Oleinik
2.08
Strikes / min
3.29
1.52
Strikes absorbed / min
3.80
59%
Strike defense
44%
1.83
TDs / 15 min
1.82
66%
Takedown defense
37%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1541 vs 1514Strikes36.7 vs 10.0Takedowns1.7 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.00Form1.0 vs 1.0
Jared RosholtAleksei Oleinik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Jared Rosholt(8 fights)Aleksei Oleinik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -4.8|Blue +4.8
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared RosholtTargetAleksei Oleinik

By target zone

14
52% acc · 74%
Head
11
58% acc · 85%
3
100% acc · 16%
Body
1
100% acc · 8%
2
100% acc · 11%
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

2
29% acc · 11%
Distance
5
50% acc · 38%
17
68% acc · 89%
Clinch
6
67% acc · 46%
0
Ground
2
100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jared Rosholt rounds
1
even
0
Aleksei Oleinik rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control1:13
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
19 / 32
Sig Strikes
13 / 21
59%
Sig Str %
61%
22 / 35
Total Strikes
38 / 47
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:13
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Aleksei Oleinik13 / 2138 / 470 / 00
1Jared Rosholt19 / 3222 / 350 / 00

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8

Aleksei Oleinik

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights17