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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Tim Elliott won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1500

Jared PapazianvsTim ElliottUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · Saturday, December 15, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tim Elliott won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Papazian: StrikervsTim Elliott: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Tim Elliott wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tim Elliott at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tim Elliott has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Papazian

Red Corner

Tim Elliott

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1352

Elo

1500

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared PapazianL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Easton · Jan 12

SUBvs Dustin Pague · Jun 12

latest

Tim Elliott

oldest →

vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23

SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23

SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25

DECvs Steve Erceg · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared PapazianMetricTim Elliott

3.33

Strikes / min

3.51

3.81

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

44%

Strike defense

56%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.61

50%

Takedown defense

59%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared PapazianTim Elliott

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Papazian(3 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -148.2|Blue +148.2

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -34.0|Blue +34.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared PapazianTargetTim Elliott

By target zone

32% acc · 78%

Head

46% acc · 72%

71% acc · 14%

Body

78% acc · 19%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 83%

Distance

47% acc · 75%

67% acc · 11%

Clinch

80% acc · 11%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

83% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Papazian rounds

even

Tim Elliott rounds

Round 1Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:21

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:32Control

Round 2Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 3Tim Elliott edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:49

Knockdowns0

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:25Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 97

Sig Strikes

36 / 69

36.3%

Sig Str %

56%

46 / 109

Total Strikes

189 / 256

0 / 1

TDs

7 / 14

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:10

Ctrl Time

7:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tim Elliott	8 / 13	53 / 68	3 / 4	3
1	Jared Papazian	14 / 30	16 / 34	0 / 1	0
2	Tim Elliott	20 / 43	32 / 57	3 / 6	0
2	Jared Papazian	18 / 54	18 / 54	0 / 0	0
3	Tim Elliott	8 / 13	104 / 131	1 / 4	1
3	Jared Papazian	4 / 13	12 / 21	0 / 0	0

Jared Papazian

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Tim Elliott

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights21