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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Kyle Kingsbury won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1353

Jared HammanvsKyle KingsburyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs Palhares · Wednesday, September 15, 2010Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kyle Kingsbury won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Hamman: Pressure fightervsKyle Kingsbury: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jared Hamman wins(73.7%)

Actual result: Kyle Kingsbury wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Hamman at -185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Hamman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Kyle Kingsbury has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Kyle Kingsbury has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Hamman

Red Corner

Kyle Kingsbury

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1352

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

190.5 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared HammanL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodney Wallace · Mar 10

KOvs CB Dollaway · Aug 11

KOvs Costas Philippou · Dec 11

KOvs Michael Kuiper · Aug 12

SUBvs Magnus Cedenblad · Aug 13

latest

Kyle KingsburyL4 streak

oldest →

vs Fabio Maldonado · Jun 11

vs Stephan Bonnar · Nov 11

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12

vs Patrick Cummins · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared HammanMetricKyle Kingsbury

5.15

Strikes / min

2.97

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

55%

Strike defense

51%

1.57

TDs / 15 min

2.64

30%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.22Δ 2.06 — meaningful gap-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared HammanKyle Kingsbury

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Hamman(6 fights)Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared HammanTargetKyle Kingsbury

By target zone

32% acc · 74%

Head

27% acc · 61%

64% acc · 16%

Body

63% acc · 13%

64% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 27%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

35% acc · 91%

40% acc · 9%

Clinch

56% acc · 6%

38% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Hamman rounds

even

Kyle Kingsbury rounds

Round 1Kyle Kingsbury edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:05

25Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 2Kyle Kingsbury edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:09

33Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:11Control

Round 3Jared Hamman edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 239

Sig Strikes

79 / 219

34.3%

Sig Str %

37.3%

146 / 298

Total Strikes

88 / 229

0 / 2

TDs

9 / 13

TD %

68.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

4:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kyle Kingsbury	25 / 51	32 / 59	4 / 5
1	Jared Hamman	13 / 47	41 / 75	0 / 0
2	Kyle Kingsbury	33 / 97	34 / 98	3 / 4
2	Jared Hamman	27 / 86	50 / 110	0 / 1
3	Kyle Kingsbury	21 / 71	22 / 72	2 / 4
3	Jared Hamman	48 / 106	55 / 113	0 / 1

Jared Hamman

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6

Kyle Kingsbury

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7