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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1486

Jared GordonvsThiago MoisesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:37

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsThiago Moises: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gordon enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Thiago Moises

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+102

(50%)

1483

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL3 streak

oldest →

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Thiago Moises

oldest →

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 23

KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24

vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24

vs Trey Ogden · Jan 25

DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricThiago Moises

5.57

Strikes / min

2.52

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.37

60%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 3.34 — meaningful gap-1.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonThiago Moises

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Thiago Moises(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.2|Blue +3.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetThiago Moises

By target zone

50% acc · 71%

Head

50% acc · 60%

Body

0% acc

67% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

45% acc · 71%

Distance

56% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 29%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Thiago Moises rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:36

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

7 / 13

Sig Strikes

5 / 9

53%

Sig Str %

55%

21 / 36

Total Strikes

11 / 16

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:36

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Thiago Moises	5 / 9	11 / 16	0 / 0	0
1	Jared Gordon	7 / 13	21 / 36	1 / 1	0

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Thiago Moises

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15