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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1483

Elo1486

Jared GordonvsMark MadsenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 11, 2023New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:42

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsMark Madsen: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(56.4%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Madsen has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Mark Madsen

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1483

Elo

1486

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Paddy Pimblett · Dec 22

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Mark Madsen

oldest →

KOvs Danilo Belluardo · Sep 19

vs Austin Hubbard · Mar 20

vs Clay Guida · Aug 21

vs Vinc Pichel · Apr 22

SUBvs Grant Dawson · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricMark Madsen

5.57

Strikes / min

3.56

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.97

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

2.86

60%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 1.87 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonMark Madsen

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Mark Madsen(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.3|Blue +3.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetMark Madsen

By target zone

47% acc · 75%

Head

52% acc · 66%

100% acc · 14%

Body

92% acc · 34%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

43% acc · 61%

Distance

43% acc · 46%

91% acc · 28%

Clinch

95% acc · 54%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Mark Madsen rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns1

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:04Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 66

Sig Strikes

35 / 57

54%

Sig Str %

61%

54 / 87

Total Strikes

46 / 69

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

1:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Madsen	35 / 57	46 / 69	0 / 0	0
1	Jared Gordon	36 / 66	54 / 87	0 / 0	0

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Mark Madsen

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6