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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joaquim Silva won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1483

Elo1507

Jared GordonvsJoaquim SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Joaquim Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:39

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsJoaquim Silva: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Joaquim Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Joaquim Silva (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Joaquim Silva

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1483

Elo

1507

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Joaquim Silva

oldest →

KOvs Jesse Ronson · Oct 22

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Jun 23

vs Clay Guida · Dec 23

vs Drakkar Klose · May 24

vs Claudio Puelles · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricJoaquim Silva

5.57

Strikes / min

3.43

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

4.17

55%

Strike defense

53%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

0.34

60%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 2.20 — meaningful gap-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonJoaquim Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Joaquim Silva(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.2|Blue +24.2

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -22.0|Blue +22.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetJoaquim Silva

By target zone

57% acc · 81%

Head

39% acc · 57%

67% acc · 9%

Body

71% acc · 32%

92% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 12%

By position

54% acc · 76%

Distance

45% acc · 82%

87% acc · 11%

Clinch

88% acc · 16%

94% acc · 13%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Joaquim Silva rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns2

Control2:39

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:45

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Joaquim Silva edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

51Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 194

Sig Strikes

95 / 191

61%

Sig Str %

49.7%

149 / 228

Total Strikes

121 / 218

3 / 8

TDs

1 / 1

30.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:24

Ctrl Time

0:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joaquim Silva	19 / 37	25 / 43	0 / 0	1
1	Jared Gordon	37 / 55	60 / 79	2 / 3	0
2	Joaquim Silva	25 / 51	45 / 72	1 / 1	1
2	Jared Gordon	37 / 56	45 / 64	1 / 4	0
3	Joaquim Silva	51 / 103	51 / 103	0 / 0	0
3	Jared Gordon	42 / 83	44 / 85	0 / 1	0

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Joaquim Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12