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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Grant Dawson won · SUB R3

Elo1483

Elo1527

Jared GordonvsGrant DawsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera · Saturday, April 30, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Grant Dawson won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:11

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsGrant Dawson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(59.6%)

Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Grant Dawson at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gordon has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Grant Dawson has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Grant Dawson

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1483

Elo

1527

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Grant Dawson

oldest →

vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24

vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25

KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25

SUBvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricGrant Dawson

5.57

Strikes / min

3.14

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

55%

Strike defense

44%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

3.58

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonGrant Dawson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.7|Blue +44.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetGrant Dawson

By target zone

58% acc · 62%

Head

44% acc · 78%

81% acc · 27%

Body

79% acc · 20%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

60% acc · 77%

Distance

41% acc · 74%

88% acc · 18%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

80% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Grant Dawson rounds

Round 1Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:14

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:42Control

Round 2Grant Dawson edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:42Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:53

29Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 119

Sig Strikes

54 / 111

63%

Sig Str %

45.7%

111 / 153

Total Strikes

98 / 163

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 17

—

TD %

39%

Sub Att

Rev

1:12

Ctrl Time

7:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Grant Dawson	15 / 32	51 / 75	1 / 4	0
1	Jared Gordon	20 / 28	22 / 30	0 / 0	0
2	Grant Dawson	10 / 28	16 / 35	3 / 7	1
2	Jared Gordon	14 / 27	20 / 33	0 / 0	0
3	Grant Dawson	29 / 51	31 / 53	3 / 6	1
3	Jared Gordon	43 / 64	69 / 90	0 / 0	0

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Grant Dawson

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14