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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Diego Ferreira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1483
Jared Gordon
Elo1489
Diego Ferreira editorial illustration

Jared GordonvsDiego FerreiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · Sunday, February 18, 2018Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Diego Ferreira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:58

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsDiego Ferreira: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(65.5%)

Actual result: Diego Ferreira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Diego Ferreira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jared Gordon has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Diego Ferreira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon
Red Corner
VS
Diego Ferreira
Blue Corner
-175
(64%)
Vegas Odds
+155
(39%)
1483
Elo
1489
37
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24
W
KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25
L
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26
latest
Diego FerreiraL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Mateusz Gamrot · Dec 21
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · May 23
W
KOvs Mateusz Rebecki · May 24
L
vs Grant Dawson · Jan 25
L
KOvs Alexander Hernandez · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricDiego Ferreira
5.57
Strikes / min
4.70
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.46
55%
Strike defense
55%
1.91
TDs / 15 min
0.82
60%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.46evenly matched on net striking+1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1522Strikes84.0 vs 27.6Takedowns3.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.60Form1.0 vs 0.4
Jared GordonDiego Ferreira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Jared Gordon(10 fights)Diego Ferreira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -6.2|Blue +6.2
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -637.0|Blue +637.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetDiego Ferreira

By target zone

8
47% acc · 100%
Head
24
44% acc · 83%
0
Body
3
75% acc · 10%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 7%

By position

8
47% acc · 100%
Distance
13
30% acc · 45%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
16
100% acc · 55%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jared Gordon rounds
0
even
1
Diego Ferreira rounds
Round 1Diego Ferreira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:18Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
8 / 17
Sig Strikes
29 / 60
47%
Sig Str %
48%
8 / 17
Total Strikes
29 / 60
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Ferreira29 / 6029 / 600 / 00
1Jared Gordon8 / 178 / 170 / 10

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17

Diego Ferreira

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights17