← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · U-DEC

Elo1483

Elo1428

Jared GordonvsDanny ChavezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

U-DEC

Style matchupJared Gordon: Pressure fightervsDanny Chavez: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(68.1%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Chavez has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Danny Chavez

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-139

(58%)

1483

Elo

1428

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Danny Chavez

oldest →

vs TJ Brown · Aug 20

KOvs Ricardo Ramos · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricDanny Chavez

5.57

Strikes / min

2.86

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.83

55%

Strike defense

50%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.95

60%

Takedown defense

87%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 2.43 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonDanny Chavez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Danny Chavez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.0|Blue -55.0

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +31.0|Blue -31.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetDanny Chavez

By target zone

46% acc · 50%

Head

25% acc · 59%

95% acc · 23%

Body

63% acc · 13%

100% acc · 27%

Leg

79% acc · 28%

By position

61% acc · 82%

Distance

34% acc · 97%

75% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

69% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Danny Chavez rounds

Round 1Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:06

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:32

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control2:29

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 131

Sig Strikes

39 / 113

63%

Sig Str %

35%

138 / 191

Total Strikes

42 / 116

2 / 7

TDs

1 / 1

58%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:07

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Danny Chavez	20 / 49	20 / 49	0 / 0
1	Jared Gordon	36 / 61	36 / 61	0 / 0
2	Danny Chavez	8 / 20	9 / 21	1 / 1
2	Jared Gordon	19 / 32	57 / 74	1 / 1
3	Danny Chavez	11 / 44	13 / 46	0 / 0
3	Jared Gordon	27 / 38	45 / 56	1 / 6

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Danny Chavez

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3