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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jared Gordon won · U-DEC R3

Elo1483

Elo1374

Jared GordonvsDan MoretUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Jared Gordon won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jared Gordon wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Jared Gordon wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gordon at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gordon has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jared Gordon has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dan Moret (53.5%).
Dan Moret has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gordon

Red Corner

Dan Moret

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1483

Elo

1374

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared GordonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mark Madsen · Nov 23

vs Nasrat Haqparast · Jun 24

KOvs Thiago Moises · May 25

KOvs Rafa Garcia · Sep 25

SUBvs Jim Miller · May 26

latest

Dan MoretL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gilbert Burns · Apr 18

vs Alex White · Mar 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GordonMetricDan Moret

5.57

Strikes / min

2.67

4.11

Strikes absorbed / min

3.56

55%

Strike defense

43%

1.91

TDs / 15 min

1.25

60%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.46Δ 2.35 — meaningful gap-0.89

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GordonDan Moret

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gordon(10 fights)Dan Moret(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.6|Blue -108.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GordonTargetDan Moret

By target zone

60% acc · 90%

Head

24% acc · 32%

67% acc · 8%

Body

82% acc · 53%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

83% acc · 15%

By position

53% acc · 35%

Distance

43% acc · 62%

57% acc · 17%

Clinch

55% acc · 35%

70% acc · 48%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gordon rounds

even

Dan Moret rounds

Round 1Dan Moret edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control2:02

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:56Control

Round 2Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control3:27

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 3Jared Gordon edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control4:12

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 79

Sig Strikes

34 / 73

56.3%

Sig Str %

46%

171 / 218

Total Strikes

37 / 78

2 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

33%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

9:41

Ctrl Time

2:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Moret	24 / 52	26 / 54	1 / 1	0
1	Jared Gordon	19 / 30	38 / 54	1 / 3	0
2	Dan Moret	7 / 14	8 / 17	1 / 1	1
2	Jared Gordon	25 / 40	47 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Dan Moret	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Jared Gordon	4 / 9	86 / 97	1 / 3	0

Jared Gordon

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17

Dan Moret

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3