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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Abubakar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC

Elo1495

Elo1497

Jared GoodenvsAbubakar NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, March 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Abubakar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC

Style matchupJared Gooden: Pressure fightervsAbubakar Nurmagomedov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Gooden wins(69.4%)

Actual result: Abubakar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Gooden at +175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Gooden threatens submissions; Abubakar Nurmagomedov has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Jared Gooden has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Gooden

Red Corner

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1495

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'11"

195.58 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Gooden

oldest →

KOvs Niklas Stolze · Jul 21

vs Randy Brown · Oct 21

vs Carlston Harris · Mar 23

SUBvs Wellington Turman · Dec 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Oct 24

latest

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

oldest →

SUBvs David Zawada · Nov 19

vs Gadzhi Omargadzhiev · Oct 22

vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared GoodenMetricAbubakar Nurmagomedov

4.40

Strikes / min

2.78

6.74

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

45%

Strike defense

65%

0.91

TDs / 15 min

1.25

65%

Takedown defense

88%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.34Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared GoodenAbubakar Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Gooden(7 fights)Abubakar Nurmagomedov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.1|Blue +2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Layoff

Red -378.0|Blue +378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared GoodenTargetAbubakar Nurmagomedov

By target zone

27% acc · 70%

Head

43% acc · 75%

48% acc · 28%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

28% acc · 81%

Distance

49% acc · 93%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

80% acc · 7%

83% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Gooden rounds

even

Abubakar Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Abubakar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 136

Sig Strikes

60 / 120

34.3%

Sig Str %

49%

111 / 207

Total Strikes

100 / 164

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 5

—

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

4:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	23 / 42	23 / 42	0 / 1
1	Jared Gooden	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0
2	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	30 / 63	30 / 63	0 / 0
2	Jared Gooden	17 / 62	17 / 62	0 / 0
3	Abubakar Nurmagomedov	7 / 15	47 / 59	1 / 4
3	Jared Gooden	12 / 25	80 / 96	0 / 0

Jared Gooden

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Abubakar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4