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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · S-DEC R5

Elo1481

Elo1530

Jared CannoniervsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Saturday, December 17, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Sean Strickland wins(69.7%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sean Strickland at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1481

Elo

1530

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Sean StricklandW2 streak

oldest →

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Feb 25

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricSean Strickland

4.42

Strikes / min

5.98

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

56%

Strike defense

60%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.66

64%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

30% acc · 40%

Head

126

35% acc · 83%

68% acc · 43%

Body

75% acc · 16%

69% acc · 17%

Leg

67% acc · 1%

By position

141

45% acc · 100%

Distance

152

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 5Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

141 / 310

Sig Strikes

152 / 400

44.2%

Sig Str %

36.6%

141 / 310

Total Strikes

157 / 410

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	13 / 48	17 / 57	1 / 1
1	Jared Cannonier	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	28 / 73	28 / 73	0 / 0
2	Jared Cannonier	25 / 58	25 / 58	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	35 / 81	35 / 81	0 / 0
3	Jared Cannonier	33 / 69	33 / 69	0 / 0
4	Jared Cannonier	27 / 61	27 / 61	0 / 0
4	Sean Strickland	33 / 87	34 / 88	0 / 0
5	Sean Strickland	43 / 111	43 / 111	0 / 0
5	Jared Cannonier	40 / 79	40 / 79	0 / 0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25