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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1481

Elo1491

Jared CannoniervsNick RoehrickUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Redemption Finale · Friday, July 7, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:08

Model Prediction: Jared Cannonier wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Cannonier at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jared Cannonier has 64pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Nick Roehrick

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1481

Elo

1491

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Nick RoehrickNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricNick Roehrick

4.42

Strikes / min

2.31

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

6.92

56%

Strike defense

44%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.00

64%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 4.68 — meaningful gap-4.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierNick Roehrick

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Nick Roehrick(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.5|Blue +9.5

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetNick Roehrick

By target zone

54% acc · 89%

Head

16% acc · 79%

83% acc · 6%

Body

32% acc · 21%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

48% acc · 68%

Distance

16% acc · 89%

78% acc · 21%

Clinch

38% acc · 11%

100% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Nick Roehrick rounds

Round 1Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns1

Control0:22

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:07

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

84 / 150

Sig Strikes

28 / 160

55.3%

Sig Str %

17.3%

86 / 152

Total Strikes

29 / 161

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:34

Ctrl Time

0:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nick Roehrick	10 / 66	10 / 66	0 / 0
1	Jared Cannonier	25 / 50	25 / 50	0 / 0
2	Nick Roehrick	14 / 72	15 / 73	0 / 0
2	Jared Cannonier	45 / 75	47 / 77	1 / 1
3	Nick Roehrick	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0
3	Jared Cannonier	14 / 25	14 / 25	0 / 0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Nick Roehrick

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach—

Fights1