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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Michael Page won · U-DEC R3
Elo1481
Jared Cannonier editorial illustration
Elo1545
Michael Page

Jared CannoniervsMichael PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Michael Page won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Page wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Michael Page wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Page at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier
Red Corner
VS
Michael Page
Blue Corner
+188
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-225
(69%)
1481
Elo
1545
42
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Cannonier
oldest →
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 23
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24
L
vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24
W
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25
L
DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26
latest
Michael PageW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24
L
vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24
W
vs Shara Magomedov · Feb 25
W
vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricMichael Page
4.42
Strikes / min
2.28
4.35
Strikes absorbed / min
1.51
56%
Strike defense
62%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.19
64%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1589 vs 1530Strikes4.4 vs 2.3Takedowns0.5 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs 0.5
Jared CannonierMichael Page

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -63.9|Blue +63.9
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetMichael Page

By target zone

10
22% acc · 50%
Head
19
42% acc · 66%
4
67% acc · 20%
Body
8
100% acc · 28%
6
100% acc · 30%
Leg
2
100% acc · 7%

By position

11
24% acc · 55%
Distance
27
51% acc · 93%
3
75% acc · 15%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 7%
6
75% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Jared Cannonier rounds
0
even
1
Michael Page rounds
Round 1Michael Page edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control2:10
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control1:56
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 3Jared Cannonier edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control4:08
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 57
Sig Strikes
29 / 55
34%
Sig Str %
52%
46 / 88
Total Strikes
36 / 64
2 / 7
TDs
0 / 1
44.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
8:14
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michael Page11 / 2011 / 210 / 10
1Jared Cannonier2 / 1610 / 240 / 30
2Michael Page11 / 2012 / 210 / 00
2Jared Cannonier10 / 2512 / 271 / 30
3Michael Page7 / 1513 / 220 / 00
3Jared Cannonier8 / 1624 / 371 / 10

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21

Michael Page

StanceSwitch
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5