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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · U-DEC R5

Elo1481

Elo1492

Jared CannoniervsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · Saturday, August 21, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsKelvin Gastelum: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Cannonier wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Cannonier at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (54.1%).
Jared Cannonier has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1481

Elo

1492

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'9"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricKelvin Gastelum

4.42

Strikes / min

3.65

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

56%

Strike defense

57%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.04

64%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -10.3|Blue +10.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

31% acc · 63%

Head

26% acc · 54%

65% acc · 25%

Body

61% acc · 25%

71% acc · 12%

Leg

83% acc · 21%

By position

39% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 99%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

0Knockdowns

Round 4Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:25Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 207

Sig Strikes

89 / 246

38.8%

Sig Str %

35.6%

91 / 218

Total Strikes

89 / 246

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 8

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

2:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	22 / 57	22 / 57	0 / 1
1	Jared Cannonier	19 / 45	19 / 45	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	24 / 59	24 / 59	0 / 1
2	Jared Cannonier	17 / 43	17 / 43	0 / 0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	15 / 54	15 / 54	0 / 2
3	Jared Cannonier	17 / 40	17 / 40	0 / 0
4	Jared Cannonier	15 / 45	19 / 49	0 / 0
4	Kelvin Gastelum	16 / 41	16 / 41	0 / 1
5	Kelvin Gastelum	12 / 35	12 / 35	0 / 3
5	Jared Cannonier	13 / 34	19 / 41	0 / 0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24