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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1481

Elo1493

Jared CannoniervsJan BlachowiczUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, December 16, 2017Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsJan Blachowicz: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jared Cannonier wins(50.9%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Cannonier at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Jan Blachowicz

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1481

Elo

1493

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricJan Blachowicz

4.42

Strikes / min

3.55

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

56%

Strike defense

52%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.98

64%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierJan Blachowicz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.2|Blue +12.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +106.0|Blue -106.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetJan Blachowicz

By target zone

25% acc · 65%

Head

32% acc · 70%

13% acc · 4%

Body

67% acc · 12%

73% acc · 31%

Leg

90% acc · 18%

By position

29% acc · 88%

Distance

39% acc · 94%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 12%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Jan Blachowicz rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:22

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 87

Sig Strikes

50 / 127

29.7%

Sig Str %

37.7%

41 / 103

Total Strikes

65 / 143

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 5

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

2:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jan Blachowicz	22 / 47	25 / 50	0 / 1
1	Jared Cannonier	6 / 32	7 / 33	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	19 / 45	27 / 53	2 / 2
2	Jared Cannonier	6 / 26	11 / 32	0 / 0
3	Jan Blachowicz	9 / 35	13 / 40	2 / 2
3	Jared Cannonier	14 / 29	23 / 38	0 / 0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21