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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1481

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Jared CannoniervsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 0:21

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

+194

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-240

(71%)

1481

Elo

1548

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL4 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 23

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Gregory RodriguesW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Tavares · Feb 24

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricGregory Rodrigues

4.42

Strikes / min

5.53

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

56%

Strike defense

50%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.90

64%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -67.0|Blue +67.0

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

38% acc · 60%

Head

35% acc · 70%

87% acc · 20%

Body

84% acc · 23%

90% acc · 19%

Leg

88% acc · 8%

By position

43% acc · 70%

Distance

41% acc · 91%

80% acc · 20%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

60% acc · 9%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:34

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:18

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:17

Knockdowns1

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 4Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

98 / 201

Sig Strikes

93 / 221

53.5%

Sig Str %

40.7%

109 / 215

Total Strikes

95 / 225

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 3

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gregory Rodrigues	25 / 66	26 / 68	0 / 1
1	Jared Cannonier	22 / 38	31 / 49	1 / 1
2	Gregory Rodrigues	25 / 68	26 / 70	0 / 0
2	Jared Cannonier	33 / 72	35 / 74	0 / 1
3	Gregory Rodrigues	43 / 87	43 / 87	0 / 2
3	Jared Cannonier	34 / 78	34 / 79	0 / 1
4	Jared Cannonier	9 / 13	9 / 13	0 / 0
4	Gregory Rodrigues	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13