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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dominick Reyes won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1481

Elo1522

Jared CannoniervsDominick ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · Saturday, May 19, 2018Santiago, Chile

Official fight result

Dominick Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:55

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsDominick Reyes: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Jared Cannonier wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Dominick Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Cannonier at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Dominick Reyes has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Dominick Reyes has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Dominick Reyes

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1481

Elo

1522

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Dominick Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Dustin Jacoby · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Smith · Dec 24

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Apr 25

KOvs Carlos Ulberg · Sep 25

DECvs Johnny Walker · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricDominick Reyes

4.42

Strikes / min

4.99

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.40

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.25

64%

Takedown defense

82%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierDominick Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Dominick Reyes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.8|Blue +40.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetDominick Reyes

By target zone

22% acc · 67%

Head

21% acc · 35%

0% acc

Body

45% acc · 25%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 40%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

39% acc · 95%

0% acc

Clinch

33% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Dominick Reyes rounds

Round 1Dominick Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 21

Sig Strikes

20 / 52

28%

Sig Str %

38%

10 / 26

Total Strikes

21 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dominick Reyes	20 / 52	21 / 53	0 / 1	0
1	Jared Cannonier	6 / 21	10 / 26	0 / 0	0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Dominick Reyes

StanceSouthpaw

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights13