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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Jared Cannonier won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1481

Elo1454

Jared CannoniervsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Saturday, February 12, 2022Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Jared Cannonier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:29

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Jared Cannonier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1481

Elo

1454

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Derek Brunson

oldest →

vs Ian Heinisch · Aug 19

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricDerek Brunson

4.42

Strikes / min

3.51

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

3.14

64%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

56% acc · 76%

Head

36% acc · 58%

100% acc · 15%

Body

60% acc · 28%

83% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 14%

By position

54% acc · 69%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

92% acc · 22%

Clinch

25% acc · 2%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

25% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:00Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:05

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 89

Sig Strikes

43 / 97

58.5%

Sig Str %

44.5%

61 / 96

Total Strikes

48 / 103

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 13

100%

TD %

23.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

2:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	20 / 41	25 / 46	2 / 9	1
1	Jared Cannonier	16 / 35	18 / 37	0 / 0	0
2	Derek Brunson	23 / 56	23 / 57	1 / 4	0
2	Jared Cannonier	39 / 54	43 / 59	1 / 1	0

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21