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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Christian Leroy Duncan won · Decision R3
Elo1481
Jared Cannonier editorial illustration
Elo1577
Christian Leroy Duncan editorial illustration

Jared CannoniervsChristian Leroy DuncanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Saturday, July 18, 2026Oklahoma City, USA

Official fight result

Christian Leroy Duncan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Christian Leroy Duncan

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Christian Leroy Duncan at -384 American odds · hypothetical only

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsChristian Leroy Duncan: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Christian Leroy Duncan enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier
Red Corner
VS
Christian Leroy Duncan
Blue Corner
+299
(25%)
Vegas Odds
-384
(79%)
1481
Elo
1577
42
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Switch
5'11"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared Cannonier
oldest →
W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 23
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24
L
vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24
W
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25
L
vs Michael Page · Aug 25
latest
Christian Leroy DuncanW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Gregory Rodrigues · Jul 24
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Mar 25
W
KOvs Eryk Anders · Aug 25
W
KOvs Marco Tulio · Nov 25
W
vs Roman Dolidze · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricChristian Leroy Duncan
4.42
Strikes / min
4.43
4.35
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
56%
Strike defense
52%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.33
64%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.07Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap+1.84
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701500153015601590← oldermost recent →
Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Christian Leroy Duncan(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -96.0|Blue +96.0
Recent Form
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +217.0|Blue -217.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetChristian Leroy Duncan

By target zone

7
19% acc · 47%
Head
37
44% acc · 54%
6
75% acc · 40%
Body
17
94% acc · 25%
2
100% acc · 13%
Leg
14
100% acc · 21%

By position

6
18% acc · 40%
Distance
43
52% acc · 63%
8
67% acc · 53%
Clinch
25
74% acc · 37%
1
100% acc · 7%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Jared Cannonier rounds
1
even
2
Christian Leroy Duncan rounds
Round 1Christian Leroy Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:02
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:09Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control2:19
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 3Christian Leroy Duncan edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns3
Control1:51
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:23Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
15 / 46
Sig Strikes
68 / 117
29.3%
Sig Str %
57%
36 / 69
Total Strikes
94 / 148
5 / 8
TDs
1 / 3
61%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
6:12
Ctrl Time
2:16

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Christian Leroy Duncan27 / 4237 / 561 / 10
1Jared Cannonier2 / 85 / 121 / 30
2Christian Leroy Duncan16 / 3126 / 420 / 10
2Jared Cannonier10 / 2515 / 301 / 20
3Christian Leroy Duncan25 / 4431 / 500 / 10
3Jared Cannonier3 / 1316 / 273 / 30

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Christian Leroy Duncan
Odds
-384

Market-implied probability

Christian Leroy Duncan 76%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Jared Cannonier$399
Christian Leroy Duncan (model pick · research)$126

76% market-implied · model 69% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -384 · never rewritten

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21

Christian Leroy Duncan

StanceSwitch
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights10