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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Caio Borralho won · U-DEC R5

Elo1481

Elo1533

Jared CannoniervsCaio BorralhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Caio Borralho won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJared Cannonier: Pressure fightervsCaio Borralho: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Caio Borralho wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Caio Borralho wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Caio Borralho at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Jared Cannonier

Red Corner

Caio Borralho

Blue Corner

+260

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-325

(76%)

1481

Elo

1533

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

6'1"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jared CannonierL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marvin Vettori · Jun 23

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24

KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25

vs Michael Page · Aug 25

DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26

latest

Caio Borralho

oldest →

SUBvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 23

vs Abus Magomedov · Nov 23

KOvs Paul Craig · May 24

vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 25

vs Reinier de Ridder · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jared CannonierMetricCaio Borralho

4.42

Strikes / min

3.47

4.35

Strikes absorbed / min

2.61

56%

Strike defense

60%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.25

64%

Takedown defense

76%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.07evenly matched on net striking+0.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jared CannonierCaio Borralho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jared Cannonier(10 fights)Caio Borralho(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.3|Blue +51.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jared CannonierTargetCaio Borralho

By target zone

28% acc · 69%

Head

106

54% acc · 69%

46% acc · 13%

Body

70% acc · 17%

63% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

33% acc · 99%

Distance

129

58% acc · 84%

50% acc · 1%

Clinch

67% acc · 1%

Ground

79% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jared Cannonier rounds

even

Caio Borralho rounds

Round 1Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jared Cannonier edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 4Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Caio Borralho edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

50Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:54Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 254

Sig Strikes

153 / 255

32.2%

Sig Str %

57%

83 / 254

Total Strikes

156 / 258

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Caio Borralho	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Jared Cannonier	12 / 34	12 / 34	0 / 0	0
2	Caio Borralho	21 / 43	21 / 43	0 / 0	0
2	Jared Cannonier	26 / 70	26 / 70	0 / 0	0
3	Caio Borralho	37 / 58	37 / 58	0 / 0	0
3	Jared Cannonier	15 / 58	15 / 58	0 / 0	0
4	Caio Borralho	30 / 53	30 / 53	0 / 0	0
4	Jared Cannonier	19 / 50	19 / 50	0 / 0	0
5	Jared Cannonier	11 / 42	11 / 42	0 / 0	0
5	Caio Borralho	50 / 69	53 / 72	0 / 1	1

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch

Height71.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21

Caio Borralho

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights9