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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Mizuki won · U-DEC R3

Elo1541

Elo1519

Jaqueline AmorimvsMizukiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mizuki won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupJaqueline Amorim: WrestlervsMizuki: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Jaqueline Amorim wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Mizuki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jaqueline Amorim at -490 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jaqueline Amorim enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Mizuki has 80pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jaqueline Amorim

Red Corner

Mizuki

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+380

(21%)

1541

Elo

1519

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

172.72 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jaqueline AmorimW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Montserrat Conejo Ruiz · Aug 23

SUBvs Cory McKenna · Mar 24

SUBvs Vanessa Demopoulos · Sep 24

SUBvs Polyana Viana · Apr 25

SUBvs Loma Lookboonmee · May 26

latest

Mizuki

oldest →

vs Hannah Goldy · Sep 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jaqueline AmorimMetricMizuki

2.43

Strikes / min

4.45

2.16

Strikes absorbed / min

4.65

54%

Strike defense

49%

2.16

TDs / 15 min

0.75

Takedown defense

80%

3.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.27evenly matched on net striking-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jaqueline AmorimMizuki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jaqueline Amorim(7 fights)Mizuki(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.3|Blue -21.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Layoff

Red -581.0|Blue +581.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jaqueline AmorimTargetMizuki

By target zone

43% acc · 73%

Head

58% acc · 87%

23% acc · 12%

Body

80% acc · 13%

80% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 69%

Distance

38% acc · 32%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

82% acc · 23%

100% acc · 19%

Ground

82% acc · 45%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jaqueline Amorim rounds

even

Mizuki rounds

Round 1Jaqueline Amorim edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control1:27

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:07Control

Round 2Mizuki edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:16

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:52Control

Round 3Mizuki edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:29Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 62

Sig Strikes

62 / 103

43.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

48 / 88

Total Strikes

150 / 203

2 / 6

TDs

2 / 2

33.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:43

Ctrl Time

7:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mizuki	15 / 32	34 / 53	0 / 0	0
1	Jaqueline Amorim	12 / 31	16 / 36	2 / 2	1
2	Mizuki	12 / 18	36 / 47	2 / 2	0
2	Jaqueline Amorim	4 / 8	12 / 19	0 / 1	0
3	Mizuki	35 / 53	80 / 103	0 / 0	0
3	Jaqueline Amorim	10 / 23	20 / 33	0 / 3	0

Jaqueline Amorim

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights7

Mizuki

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights2