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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · SUB R2

Elo1493

Elo1485

Jan BlachowiczvsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · Saturday, September 15, 2018Moscow, Moscow, Russia

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:41

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jan Blachowicz wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jan Blachowicz at +125 American odds

+$125 profit

$225 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jan Blachowicz has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

+125

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1493

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricNikita Krylov

3.55

Strikes / min

4.36

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

52%

Strike defense

47%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

2.05

69%

Takedown defense

53%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.36 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.1|Blue -8.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -462.0|Blue +462.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

59% acc · 100%

Head

21% acc · 75%

0% acc

Body

0% acc

Leg

33% acc · 25%

By position

20% acc · 10%

Distance

13% acc · 50%

Clinch

69% acc · 90%

Ground

33% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:42

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:12

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 18

Sig Strikes

4 / 22

62.5%

Sig Str %

11.5%

24 / 33

Total Strikes

21 / 40

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

100%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:54

Ctrl Time

1:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikita Krylov	4 / 17	21 / 35	1 / 1	1
1	Jan Blachowicz	7 / 14	15 / 23	0 / 0	0
2	Nikita Krylov	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Jan Blachowicz	3 / 4	9 / 10	1 / 1	1

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23