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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1493

Elo1433

Jan BlachowiczvsLuke RockholdUFC Prediction Result

UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · Saturday, July 6, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:39

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsLuke Rockhold: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Luke Rockhold wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Luke Rockhold at -260 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Luke Rockhold

Blue Corner

+220

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-260

(72%)

1493

Elo

1433

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'2"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Luke RockholdL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15

KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16

KOvs David Branch · Sep 17

KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18

vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricLuke Rockhold

3.55

Strikes / min

4.10

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.68

52%

Strike defense

53%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.70

69%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczLuke Rockhold

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Luke Rockhold(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.1|Blue -60.1

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -378.0|Blue +378.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetLuke Rockhold

By target zone

52% acc · 37%

Head

20% acc · 29%

80% acc · 27%

Body

67% acc · 57%

100% acc · 37%

Leg

50% acc · 14%

By position

66% acc · 77%

Distance

29% acc · 64%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 36%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Luke Rockhold rounds

Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:43Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 42

Sig Strikes

14 / 36

71%

Sig Str %

45%

38 / 50

Total Strikes

17 / 39

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

3:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luke Rockhold	8 / 26	10 / 28	0 / 5
1	Jan Blachowicz	16 / 23	20 / 27	0 / 0
2	Luke Rockhold	6 / 10	7 / 11	0 / 0
2	Jan Blachowicz	14 / 19	18 / 23	0 / 0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Luke Rockhold

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights11