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Light Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Jan Blachowicz won · S-DEC R5

Elo1493

Elo1400

Jan BlachowiczvsJacare SouzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsJacare Souza: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jacare Souza wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jacare Souza at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jacare Souza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jacare Souza has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jan Blachowicz has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz

Red Corner

Jacare Souza

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1493

Elo

1400

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

198.12 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz

oldest →

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22

vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23

vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25

vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25

latest

Jacare SouzaL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kelvin Gastelum · May 18

KOvs Chris Weidman · Nov 18

vs Jack Hermansson · Apr 19

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 20

SUBvs Andre Muniz · May 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricJacare Souza

3.55

Strikes / min

2.53

3.14

Strikes absorbed / min

2.83

52%

Strike defense

62%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

2.57

69%

Takedown defense

57%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.41evenly matched on net striking-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Jan BlachowiczJacare Souza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Jacare Souza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.1|Blue -93.1

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetJacare Souza

By target zone

31% acc · 54%

Head

29% acc · 40%

65% acc · 18%

Body

30% acc · 15%

69% acc · 28%

Leg

90% acc · 45%

By position

38% acc · 83%

Distance

40% acc · 90%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jan Blachowicz rounds

even

Jacare Souza rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:30Control

Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Round 3Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:04

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:26Control

Round 4Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

Round 5Jan Blachowicz edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

71 / 170

Sig Strikes

20 / 48

42.8%

Sig Str %

36.2%

105 / 205

Total Strikes

56 / 88

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 5

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

8:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jacare Souza	2 / 5	7 / 14	0 / 1
1	Jan Blachowicz	8 / 16	17 / 25	0 / 0
2	Jacare Souza	9 / 15	16 / 22	0 / 1
2	Jan Blachowicz	15 / 38	21 / 44	0 / 0
3	Jacare Souza	7 / 14	14 / 21	0 / 1
3	Jan Blachowicz	16 / 44	22 / 51	0 / 0
4	Jan Blachowicz	17 / 34	23 / 40	0 / 0
4	Jacare Souza	1 / 9	15 / 23	0 / 0
5	Jacare Souza	1 / 5	4 / 8	0 / 2
5	Jan Blachowicz	15 / 38	22 / 45	0 / 0

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights21

Jacare Souza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights17