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Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Jan Blachowicz won · U-DEC
Elo1493
Jan Blachowicz editorial illustration
Elo1464
Israel Adesanya

Jan BlachowiczvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jan Blachowicz won

U-DEC

Style matchupJan Blachowicz: Well-roundedvsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Israel Adesanya wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Jan Blachowicz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Israel Adesanya at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Israel Adesanya enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Israel Adesanya (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Jan Blachowicz
Red Corner
VS
Israel Adesanya
Blue Corner
+205
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-245
(71%)
1493
Elo
1464
43
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
6'4"
198.12 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jan Blachowicz
oldest →
L
SUBvs Glover Teixeira · Oct 21
W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · May 22
L
vs Alex Pereira · Jul 23
L
vs Carlos Ulberg · Mar 25
D
vs Bogdan Guskov · Dec 25
latest
Israel AdesanyaL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23
L
vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23
L
SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 24
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25
L
KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jan BlachowiczMetricIsrael Adesanya
3.55
Strikes / min
4.03
3.14
Strikes absorbed / min
3.22
52%
Strike defense
55%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.05
69%
Takedown defense
76%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.41evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1598 vs 1669Strikes3.6 vs 4.0Takedowns1.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.30Form0.9 vs 1.1
Jan BlachowiczIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Jan Blachowicz(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +29.0|Blue -29.0
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jan BlachowiczTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

67
46% acc · 63%
Head
32
31% acc · 41%
29
88% acc · 27%
Body
17
74% acc · 22%
11
79% acc · 10%
Leg
29
81% acc · 37%

By position

85
50% acc · 79%
Distance
77
49% acc · 99%
6
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
0% acc
16
89% acc · 15%
Ground
1
50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Jan Blachowicz rounds
0
even
0
Israel Adesanya rounds
Round 1Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:00
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns1
Control1:07
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 4Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control3:29
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Jan Blachowicz edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control2:30
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
107 / 193
Sig Strikes
78 / 161
55.6%
Sig Str %
48.2%
184 / 276
Total Strikes
99 / 182
3 / 5
TDs
0 / 0
62.5%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
7:06
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Israel Adesanya13 / 3013 / 300 / 00
1Jan Blachowicz18 / 3118 / 310 / 00
2Jan Blachowicz23 / 4923 / 490 / 10
2Israel Adesanya21 / 4221 / 420 / 00
3Jan Blachowicz24 / 4228 / 461 / 10
3Israel Adesanya21 / 4034 / 530 / 00
4Israel Adesanya11 / 2015 / 240 / 00
4Jan Blachowicz14 / 2451 / 641 / 20
5Jan Blachowicz28 / 4764 / 861 / 10
5Israel Adesanya12 / 2916 / 330 / 00

Jan Blachowicz

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights21

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19